There are some that have great chance but no givens.
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Will any USA women medal in any event 800 or over??
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Will any USA women in any event over 800m
I think we have an excellent chance in both the 800 & 1500. We have the best depth ever in the 1,500 with WurthThomas, Rowbury and Willard. One of them could definitely win a medal. Vessey, although inexperienced, has the #2 time in the 800. 5000 and 10,000 were not as strong, although if Flanagan ran like she did last year she could be in there.
In the marathon, Goucher can definitely medal on a good day.
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Originally posted by jpauleUS has great talent in every 800, 1500, 10K, Marathon, and SC but it is still going to be tough to get a medal.
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Looking at each event by itself, I don't think you can predict a U.S. medal in any one of them.
On the other hand, we're close enough in so many events and so many things can happen that I think it's reasonable to project one medal from among all these events.
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Originally posted by djLooking at each event by itself, I don't think you can predict a U.S. medal in any one of them.
On the other hand, we're close enough in so many events and so many things can happen that I think it's reasonable to project one medal from among all these events.
So, suppose we are talking about the 800, 1500 and St., and we posit that, in each event, the probability is .2 (odds of 41 against) of the US (or any other country) winning a medal.
The probability of the US medalling in ALL THREE is:
.2 * .2 *.2 = .008, or odds of 1241 against.
The probability of the US medalling in ONE or MORE is:
((.8 * .8 * .8) * 1) + 1.0 = .488
The probability of the US NOT medalling in all three is .8^3 = .512, whose complement is .488.
This, presumably, is the basis for dj's statement.
If we add a couple more events, the probability will go up. Of course, no one really knows any of the individual probabilities, so this is really just pointless (but fun) speculation.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
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